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Cameron and the EU speech

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Reason: going nowhere because of FM
mikehit
mikehit  56298 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 1:02 PM


Quote: you happily quote the amount we send to the EU and ignore the amount we get back (because that would reduce your argument against EU),

Not so Mike, we are the second largest net contributor to the EU after Germany, in addition to running a negative balance of trade with the EU. The EU costs the UK money both directly and indirectly

Quote: our net contribution to the Brussels budget, from 5.3 billion in 2009 to 9.2 billion in 2010 From Hansard

I fully get that. My point was that Focusman used the lovely headline-grabbing 19billion, which ignored the 10bilion we get back as payments and rebate. Which is a simple example of how people polarise debate without really discussing the issues (even someone like Focusman sho claims to want to discuss the real issues).

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strawman
strawman  1022006 forum posts United Kingdom16 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 1:18 PM

On the benefits of being in the EU what is the value of the businesses and employment that is derived from us being in the EU, that needs to be factored in. What % of business is in the UK because it is in the Eurozone and would not be there without it? So could we balance that out? That sort of information makes an informed debate, but sadly the political parties on all sides are not presenting that and will go chest thumping.

There is an argument for reviewing the whole EU subsidy system, and how the subsidy money is gathered. And even then do we gain. If the subsidy is used to keep farming going is it reducing the end cost we pay, so would shop prices rise of we end the subsidies? How much is linked into fisheries payment? i.e .how much of this money is actually wooden money that just circulates. And how much would we spend regardless.

So that was the budget but what about the other points I raise regarding what could be done to improve the situation.. And how about work time directive? Is it all bad?
Regarding the FTSE just go back over the past period you can see larger rises and falls. I have some investment plans invested in the market and its performance varies from wonderful to disaster in the short term, you have to average out the trends or be an expert in spot sell/buy. So I saw +12% one year -5% another etc. that is why on the day by day I am not excited. The current rise started before this speech and was driven by other factors.
I am all for debate on these issues but I do think we need to see total pictures.

brian1208
brian1208 e2 Member 1110227 forum postsbrian1208 vcard United Kingdom12 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 1:29 PM


Quote: I fully get that. My point was that Focusman used the lovely headline-grabbing 19billion, which ignored the 10bilion we get back as payments and rebate. Which is a simple example of how people polarise debate without really discussing the issues

but - the fact is that we are in deficit to the EU in both our contribution vs return and balance of trade (and, from memory, have been ever since we joined)

So - where are the trade and business benefits coming from if we stay in?

(I can understand why Bankers and other money traders want to stay in as they have a positive trade balance and also large multi-national corporations as this allows them to "balance" turnover vs tax returned)

but, for the UK as a whole (and us as taxpayers) the benefits are less clear (to put it politely Smile )

mikehit
mikehit  56298 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 1:40 PM

Ignoring the discussion about whether we are second, third or fourth net contributor, if you question why we should run a deficit at all, then you would have to ask why the other net contributors (Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, Austria) are in the EU. What do they perceive they get out of it? I cannot imagine all those countries are doing it purely to financially help out the minor countries - they must get other things out of it because it sure as hell ain't money.
And if everyone wanted to be a net gainer, then the whole thing would be bankrupt.


I read one comment a few years ago that actually many of the larger countries agree with UK's criticisms of the way the whole thing is organised (politically and financially) but they dare no rock the boat. So they love Britain being there because they are happy to let us act as a lightning rod for all their woes without having to be seen to be party-poopers themselves. In that respect I agree with Strawman that Cameron was an idiot to burn all his bridges for the sake of a few back bench whingers.

Last Modified By mikehit at 24 Jan 2013 - 1:41 PM
brian1208
brian1208 e2 Member 1110227 forum postsbrian1208 vcard United Kingdom12 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 2:22 PM


Quote: they must get other things out of it because it sure as hell ain't money.

Surely then, that must be the area for the pro-European camp to explain if they want to make the case why the UK should stay in the EU?

As it is, I have seen very little put foward to explain what this is and how it balances the economic cost and loss of some of our Sovreignty.

If you want to really get into the nuts and bolts of how predicted trends in markets around the world look over the next few decades this paper makes heavy but very informative reading. The trend is clearly away from Europe and into the developing markets

mikehit
mikehit  56298 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 2:31 PM

And that is where one of the main benefits of the EU comes in (and has been discussed on the radio recently). The Americas, Europe and a load of other countries are going to be fighting to do business with them - and all of them are part of trading blocs (NAFTA, ASEAN, APEC, AUSFTA...) which will be far more effective than Britain trying to weedle their way in as an independent country.
Unfortunately the benefits of doing that are not easily measurable, whereas the amount we put into the EU coffers is a number with lots of zeros that sounds scary. So at the end of the day it comes down to a bit of faith: is a net of 10billon a year (about 1% of our total national expenditure) worth the gamble? I believe it is.

joolsb
joolsb  927115 forum posts Switzerland38 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 2:50 PM


Quote: those things are happening, and the world of business is becoming ever more Global. The time of little UK standing on its own may well be behind us. Now are we better involved in the big development of Europe or standing outside the room moaning about those nasty people doing things we do not like. I think we could have been proactive, instead we have been reactive. So my fear, we the UK are arguing over the small points on a matter of principal and ignoring the big picture.

An excellent and level-headed summary of the situation. Totally agree.

brian1208
brian1208 e2 Member 1110227 forum postsbrian1208 vcard United Kingdom12 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 2:56 PM

hmm, are you suggesting that the fact the UK is able to increase its trade in goods and services outside the EU is a consequence of being an EU member Mike?

It would be interesting if there were any evidence to support that Mike, I sense that a lot of our new goods & services trade comes despite direct competition from other EU members for the same business, particularly from Germany & France, not least in things such as banking and financial services, automotive trade etc

Focus_Man
Focus_Man  4481 forum posts United Kingdom631 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 3:02 PM


Quote: Sorry a genuine error on my part but still 11.25% betters any other bank investment.

As has already been said you cannot take one days change of the FTSE as representative as its only a snap shot in time where stocks & shares prices can change in seconds, and then to go on and multiply this up into an annual figure just shows your missunderstanding of economics. I wonder what you would have made of the maths on BLACK WEDNESDAY in September 1992 ....................

As I said earlier, I wish people would read comments correctly, it is a snapshot in time but IT REFLECTS THE VIEWS OF BUSINESS AND INVESTORS. Had business looked upon this referendum an being bad for UK and not in the best interests of our economy, the FTSE would have gone down.

Focus_Man
Focus_Man  4481 forum posts United Kingdom631 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 3:04 PM


Quote:
I fully get that. My point was that Focusman used the lovely headline-grabbing 19billion, which ignored the 10bilion we get back as payments and rebate. Which is a simple example of how people polarise debate without really discussing the issues (even someone like Focusman sho claims to want to discuss the real issues).

Hrmmmph! not 10 billion rebate but 5 billion.

Incidentally our exports to countries not in the EU now exceed those to countries within the EU. So better things to come from trade outside like India and China, the emerging new big economies. Range Rover from here on Merseyside is at the forefront of it as well. Good stuff. I also see our new job creation is well ahead of the plan and numbers claiming job-seekers allowance is at a remarkable low. So we seem to be doing Ok despite what people who try to mark us down attempt to do. We area significant economy and will be just fine on our own and we will still trade with the Eu as the very few exports we make there will always be needed.

I am glad that this thread i started has blossomed.

Last Modified By Focus_Man at 24 Jan 2013 - 3:09 PM
collywobles
24 Jan 2013 - 3:19 PM


Quote: As I said earlier, I wish people would read comments correctly, it is a snapshot in time but IT REFLECTS THE VIEWS OF BUSINESS AND INVESTORS. Had business looked upon this referendum an being bad for UK and not in the best interests of our economy, the FTSE would have gone down.

As I also said - for you to interperate a single day change in the FTSE into an annualised amount - you do not understand even the basics of economics. Yes it does reflect the views of business investors but only for a fraction in time.

What ever our net contribution to the EU and lets just agree on about 5b we do get something in return. The motor industry has done well, our farmers get enourmous subsidies. and yes the French get better, we have an EU working legislation that protects workers rights. Its not all a one way street, and again I say, this is why there must be serious and factual discussion.

Last Modified By collywobles at 24 Jan 2013 - 3:20 PM
mikehit
mikehit  56298 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 3:23 PM


Quote: Hmm, are you suggesting that the fact the UK is able to increase its trade in goods and services outside the EU is a consequence of being an EU member Mike?

It would be interesting if there were any evidence to support that Mike, I sense that a lot of our new goods & services trade comes despite direct competition from other EU members for the same business, particularly from Germany & France, not least in things such as banking and financial services, automotive trade etc

I am saying there will be some benefit - how much is not very measurable and I too would be interested to see the evidence.
You mention the auto trade: if we were not in the EU, would there be any benefit to car companies being based in UK? I am not convinced - in kudos terms as well as financial terms, there would be benefits to the company upping sticks to the EU if we were not part of the EU. When the renewal deals with Nissan were agreed a few years ago, it was touch and go as to whether we could get them to stay here so if we were not in EU our argument would be even weaker.

mikehit
mikehit  56298 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 3:27 PM


Quote: I fully get that. My point was that Focusman used the lovely headline-grabbing 19billion, which ignored the 10bilion we get back as payments and rebate. Which is a simple example of how people polarise debate without really discussing the issues (even someone like Focusman sho claims to want to discuss the real issues).

Hrmmmph! not 10 billion rebate but 5 billion.



My turn Wink
Read my comments: payments and rebates.

But it still begs the queston why you quoted only the negative (the 19 billion paid out) without mentioning the positive (the payments and rebates we get back). As I said, it is not so much the numbers themselves as the way you concentrate on only one part of the equation. Both sides do it and too many people look only at the facts that support their pre-defined prejudice.

Focus_Man
Focus_Man  4481 forum posts United Kingdom631 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 3:34 PM


Quote:
But it still begs the queston why you quoted only the negative (the 19 billion paid out) without mentioning the positive (the payments and rebates we get back). As I said, it is not so much the numbers themselves as the way you concentrate on only one part of the equation. Both sides do it and too many people look only at the facts that support their pre-defined prejudice.

I don't see a rebate as a positive thing. We are not given anything at all by the EU they are just returning some of OUR OWN money. How can that be positive? On top of that look at the strain on our Health and Prison services, the housing and benefit costs we have to bear as a result of EU 'go where and when you -please' policy, that costs far more than the 5 Billion refunded which is why I still quote the 19Billion - actually is is probably far more than that when you also take into account the costs of an EU office in every town in the UK, the staff manning it together with pension costs etc etc etc. I need not go on I am able to rest my case actually.

mikehit
mikehit  56298 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
24 Jan 2013 - 3:39 PM

Out of interest: can you list any benefits of being in the EU?

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