Take your photography to the next level and beyond...

  • NEWS
  • REVIEWS
  • INSPIRATION
  • COMMUNITY
  • COMPETITIONS

Why not join for free today?

Join for Free

Your total photography experience starts here


Cameron and the EU speech

Attention!

This topic is locked.

Reason : going nowhere because of FM


strawman 10 22.0k 16 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 2:18PM
My view on a referendum. If it was said that a lot of people in the UK are concerned about whether being in the EU was the correct path and in 6 months time we the UK would have a referendum on whether we stay in or leave then I would say OK it is a big issue lets do it. I would support it and be asking for some intelligent analysis of the plus and minus points of being in the EU. Also I would look for vision of where we as a country would be if we left/stayed. I am prepared to change my position upon receiving a decent view of facts and probable outcomes. Sadly UKIP spout sound bites without getting to the reality of the situation, rather like the SNP on devolution. That devalues the validity of their argument in my eyes.
But in this case we have well if I get re-elected and if if if… (remember the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty that was in the election pledge that was pointless as the deal was done and was quietly dropped). The problem is it has not opened the floor for a reasonable debate in a timely manner, a decision and move on. It has put us in limbo and not made us get on with fixing the issues. And this is regarding to leaving or getting stuck into the EU. That to me is the bad things and the part where Cameron looks weak. He has not tackled the problem head on but has instead deferred it in the hope someone else deals with it.

Join ePHOTOzine for free and remove these adverts.

strawman 10 22.0k 16 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 2:39PM

Quote:Best estimate you will get, allowing for the £5billion rebate but adding on for housing, state benefits, NHs fees, schooling etc etc £18Billion total.
Err no it is not here is one that indicates £5.8 to £8.9bn before we count all the soft benefits. Also we would switch some of that spend to other equivalent people, for example more lawyers and international court spend working on trade treaties etc. We could even loose out on some terms as minnow UK can probably not agree as good terms for many things, and what if out credit rating is changed and our debt costs more to service. We spend more making payments on the national debt that EU. So should we be cutting the national debt first. Hence my question, what does it really cost us. It is not as simple as you say.

I am prepared to admit there may be a case for not being in the EU, but you are not helping it with your poor grasp of numbers. If I follow your approach I can see one great way of solving the country problems, just drop pensions from the state. If they are working well they have wages. If they are not working well they add no economic value so lets stop paying for them. That would save a lot of money. State pensions cost £63bn and will double in the next 20 years a lot more than your view of what the EU costs.
Focus_Man 4 481 631 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 2:52PM

Quote:I am prepared to admit there may be a case for not being in the EU, but you are not helping it with your poor grasp of numbers. .


My grasp of numbers will be proven to be better than yours my friend so do NOT be personal about my abilities or otherwise, you do not know enough about me at all. You are speculating above about alternative expenditure, but given the state that Labour left our finances in that may never happen. Just like you I am entitled to offer
the best estiamate available without the speculation. These costs are actually occurring now!

Facts and speculation are entirely different things, but now we can alls ee where you are coming from - Rob the poor pensioner to be able to afford membership of a corrupt club. You have said it all, avarice has taken over your mindset now so there is no more left to say. If you are so short of money ask the treasury to transfer my pension to you. I am sure it will make you feel better.
mikehit e2
5 6.8k 11 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 2:59PM
Strawman - there is one major flaw in you posts. You are positing benefits of the EU, and disagreeing with the worst possible decision. Your posts are therefore invalid.


Quote:You have said it all, avarice has taken over your mindset now so there is no more left to say.

And by your own admission, you are 72 and do not bother looking at the long term. So it is hard to believe that your ideas are in the best interests of the UK.
25 Jan 2013 3:12PM

Quote:Doubt it, the electorate is just as smart as you. If the press won't fool you, what places you on such a pedestal to believe you understand but others don't?

Good question. It’s got little to do with smartness, but lots to do with upbringing and experience. My mother is Finnish, my father is British from Northern Ireland, and so far I’ve lived in two continents and several European countries. This doesn’t make me better or smarter than anyone, obviously, but it has given me a particular distaste for racism, xenophobia, and nationalism – and I see a lot of that in the press.

Here’s an example for you. You keep saying things like this:

Quote:Best estimate you will get, allowing for the £5billion rebate but adding on for housing, state benefits, NHs fees, schooling etc etc £18Billion total. If you don't accept that then tough, you provide me with a better estimate yourself…

Which means you think EU immigration costs the UK taxpayer a fortune. Why would you think that unless the press implied that on a daily basis? Because it’s certainly not the truth.

Here’s a study done by the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (PDF) at the University of London. It’s heavy going, with maths beyond my grasp, but the abstract is all you really need:

“This paper assesses the fiscal consequences of migration to the UK from the Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in May 2004 (A8 countries). We show that A8 immigrants who arrived after EU enlargement in 2004, and who have at least one year of residence – and are therefore legally eligible to claim benefits - are 60% less likely than natives to receive state benefits or tax credits, and 58% less likely to live in social housing. Even if A8 immigrants had the same demographic characteristics of natives, they would still be 13% less likely to receive benefits and 28% less likely to live in social housing. We then compare the net fiscal contribution of A8 immigrants with that of individuals born in the UK, and find that in each fiscal year since enlargement in 2004, A8 immigrants made a positive contribution to public finance despite the fact that the UK has been running a budget deficit over the last years. This is because they have a higher labour force participation rate, pay proportionately more in indirect taxes, and make much lower use of benefits and public services. [Emphasis mine.]
strawman 10 22.0k 16 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 3:24PM

Quote:but now we can alls ee where you are coming from -
Err sadly you do not because if you followed my other posts and actually read what I said which was
Quote: If I follow your approach
.

I would not advocate robbing from the pensioners, I am just trying to put the numbers into perspective and pointing out why taking the short term self interest approach is wrong. If I were being self interested I would in fact say sod the welfare state/pensions etc as today just now I personally would be better off without it. But that would be a stupid short term stance.

But your approach as you say is short term and you are not thinking about what impact leaving the EU may have on the broader community. Given the EU stance you may well be better off with the UK in the EU as they are stronger on the welfare state and individual human rights than the UK is. So err.

The point on immigrants is well made but many people do not want to understand that they help the UK economy in real terms.
strawman 10 22.0k 16 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 3:31PM

Quote:My grasp of numbers will be proven to be better than yours my friend


Quote:So you don't think that an increase of 18pts is good? Well it equates to 3% per day and 112.5% increase in a year

Does this thread substantiate your claim? All I am saying is you are quoting numbers that I would say are not factualy correct. from an 18pt rise in FTSE being much less than a 3% rise, to the true costs of being in the EU. Ithink you need to go back and re-check your numbers and come back with a better grasp of the costs. I admit I cannot see the true costs (apart from knowing your basic calculation ignores too much to be valid) and I suspect it will be very very hard to calculate the real cost but some smart economists can no doubt create some modes to give us a range of views of what future life in an out of the EU will be like.

If we are to have this debate, lets set the clever people off on the task and lets see what the options are. Lets do it in a reasonable time frame, and let us be decisive. No Daily Mail analysis please. this current dithering does no one any good, and could be worse than just taking the decision to stay or leave. I will just warn that there are a lot of benefits of being in the EU we should not give up lightly. And some of the reasons certain business leaders give for wanting to be out of the EU are about driving down wages (which will no doubt drive down pensions in turn as tax revenue falls) . So if that is what you want make certain you want it.

I think our government has handled the situation badly and could have achieved more within the EU through careful strategy and seeking out aliances. I can be persuaded to vote to leave the EU, but at the moment the little information I have tells me it would be bad for the UK. But be aware the rest of Europe is on a path that we could have chosen to influence, but we have not. Time will tell if that was good or bad.
brian1208 e2
11 10.4k 12 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 4:44PM

Quote:think our government has handled the situation badly and could have achieved more within the EU through careful strategy and seeking out aliances


I think successive governments have a share in achieving our current situation and I also feel that none have been truly honest with the electorate about the reasons for and against joining, which has allowed the media to have a field day (on both sides of the argument)

As for Dave's Delays, I think I can maybe see where he is coming from. He wants the UK to stay in the EU but is pretty sure that at present the average punter would probably vote for "Out" (I saw something today about a poll showing 53% wanting to leave?). I also think he wants to renegotiate the terms under which we are members in an attempt to improve peoples' perceptions of what benefits / consequences there maybe in our membership and finally, in the current buggers muddle of a coalition he knows there is no chance of achieving anything useful as "Gleggies Gang" will always be running interference, so its better to seek a mandate at the next election

I don't see this as something that must be done "NOW" as the media and some here would have us believe, its much to important to be rushed and, to be honest, I can see no reason why it should be.

Its a great shame we don't have a better opposition as they could then present a more reasoned set of arguments for or against (does anyone really know where Ed stands on this?) which would set the stage for proper parliamentary debate rather than the low level pantomime they seem set on at the moment
mikehit e2
5 6.8k 11 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 4:56PM

Quote:Do not believe the pro EU propaganda.

As opposed to UKIP propaganda?

The extract Strawman posted is from a paper produced by University College London, not the EU:
"CReAM is an independent and interdisciplinary research centre located in the Department of Economics at University College London."
http://www.cream-migration.org/
collywobles 10 3.3k 9 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 5:32PM

Quote:(apart from knowing your basic calculation ignores too much to be valid)


Many here have already pointed that out to him several times but he seems to ignore anything that does not go along with his views and opinions.
simmybear 8 32
25 Jan 2013 10:31PM
Population of China 1.244 billion
Population of EU (without UK) 444 million
Population of the USA 356 million

Population of UK 56 million

Even if we had "Delboy Trotter" negotiate the absolute "blinder" of a deal to move outside the EU "Rodney" its the big battalions that win the war?

It makes me think I should paraphrase that famous phrase of Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili "F*** the P*pe How many divisions does he have" in our case how many divisions will the UK have on its side?

Just a thought
simmybear 8 32
25 Jan 2013 10:43PM
In fact on that vein when I was young lad and the first EU referendum wasn't even a twinkle in the eye, I used to play wargames (just before Dungeons & Dragons took over the world).

One of my favourite games was called "Invasion America" which pitted the United States and Canada (the last bastions of freedom???) against the European Socialist Coalition (ESC), the Pan Asiatic League (PAL) and the South American Union (SAU). The USA always got a good hiding lol

All fiction of course but its funny how in the strangest way the numbers in my last quote - only this time for USA and Canada read UK and for war read economic battles - start to look worrying..........

As I said all fiction and a bit of light relief from the "fisticuffs" seen so far in this "debate"
brian1208 e2
11 10.4k 12 United Kingdom
25 Jan 2013 11:08PM
You may be a SciFi man Simon, if so, can you remember the name of the novel written a few years back about a time when the UK was trying to leave the EU, civil disorder breaks out and the EU "Peace Keeeping" force comes into the UK to impose Martial Law to control it?

I know I've not made it up but I'm darned if I can remember either the author or the title. I quite fancied another read to see how prescient the bloke was and if his time scale is about right Smile
Focus_Man 4 481 631 United Kingdom
26 Jan 2013 9:00AM

Quote:Do not believe the pro EU propaganda.
As opposed to UKIP propaganda?

The extract Strawman posted is from a paper produced by University College London, not the EU:
"CReAM is an independent and interdisciplinary research centre located in the Department of Economics at University College London."
http://www.cream-migration.org/



OK so it is university left wing propoganda - same difference. Independent means left wing anywhere in public sector, that is well known.
Focus_Man 4 481 631 United Kingdom
26 Jan 2013 9:02AM

Quote:(apart from knowing your basic calculation ignores too much to be valid)

Many here have already pointed that out to him several times but he seems to ignore anything that does not go along with his views and opinions.



Funny, that describes your attitude, as I said earlier and I am getting fed up of saying it, 'pots and kettles' come to mind, and your illogical dogma has been pointed out to you many times. Accept that others have a point and all you say is speculation, wait for the referendum OK.