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jondf
jondf  72474 forum posts
2 Mar 2013 - 12:13 PM

The link below attempts to stir up concern over the UK's apparent slide into a third recession. Yet all I know is that every year during the gap between the start of the new year and the beginning of spring, there's always talk of economic downturn. And, after reading Nick Davies' book 'Flat Earth News', you wonder just what it is that you can believe in respect of media outpourings.

If things go the way they usually do, I forecast an economic upturn any time soon -

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/01/uk-britain-economy-idUKBRE9200DY2013030...

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2 Mar 2013 - 12:13 PM

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collywobles
3 Mar 2013 - 8:53 AM

I dont see anything on the horizon that is going to improve the counties economic outlook for may years. Its growth that we need which at the moment is pretty drab and negative. Without getting into politics I believe we need investment into infrastructure such as HS 2, Roads, Houses as well as even bigger cuts.

thewilliam
3 Mar 2013 - 10:00 AM

For some strange reason, during my adult life, our rulers hjave been unable to distinguish between infrastructure investment and expenditure.

When Norway had it North Sea oil bonanza, their government invested heavily in infrastructure and the result is that Norway is one of the world's most advanced countries with very high GDP. Thatcher presided over the highest unemployment rate in living memory precisely because the bonanza was squandered rather than invested. At least the Arabs have their gold-plated palaces to show for their expenditure.

Transport is difficult in many parts of the UK. Our road system falls far short of the norm most European countries. Until our infrastructure and education improve, it will be more difficult and more costly to do business in the UK and multinational companies will prefer to go elsewhere.

collywobles
3 Mar 2013 - 10:17 AM


Quote: Thatcher presided over the highest unemployment rate in living memory precisely because the bonanza was squandered rather than invested

To some extent you are right, I liked the fact that Thatchers Govt gave people the opportunity to buy their own council property, but that income was squandered as well, just think that if the money obtained through the sale of council houses was then put back in to build new houses - then we would have a totally different situation on housing than we have now.

mikehit
mikehit  46187 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
3 Mar 2013 - 10:48 AM


Quote: Thatcher presided over the highest unemployment rate in living memory precisely because the bonanza was squandered rather than invested.

The decision to put the oil revenue into the general tax pot instead of an instrastructure fund was taken by Labour, and by arch-socialist Tony Benn of all people. He did this for one reason - power.
Even before the oil started flowing they commissioned a report that predicted that that the revenue would enable the incumbent government to offer tax cuts and benefits that would (barring total incompetence) effectively bribe the electorate to keep them in power for 20 years. Once Labour screwed up the 1974 election, they effectively handed the opil boinanza to the Conservatives. I agree the way the Conservatives handled it was a missed opportunity, but given the profligacy of the 1970s Labour party and their subservience to the Unions at the time I shudder to think where we would have ended up.

thewilliam
3 Mar 2013 - 12:26 PM

Although a dyed-in-the-wool conservative, I'd regard the two decades 1979 to 1997 as some of the worst-managed years in our history. I strongly believe that our rulers didn't act in the best interests of the country, which should be the first responsibility of every government.

I can remember whe Mike Yarwood (the impressionist) started a sketch with the Prime Minister saying, "Jack Jones ( then leader of the TUC) asked me to form a new government". These days, Rory Bremner could use the same script but using Rupert Murdoch in place of Jack Jones.

Successive governments of both flavours have allowed selfish interests from their sponsors to over-rule the needs of the nation.

jondf
jondf  72474 forum posts
8 Mar 2013 - 11:55 AM


Quote: If things go the way they usually do, I forecast an economic upturn any time soon

Oh? Spring come a little early has it?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/08/uk-markets-global-idUKBRE87514J20130308

thewilliam
8 Mar 2013 - 12:04 PM

We need ordinary folk to lose their fear of spending. It seems that the nation's credit-card debt is tumbling at a rate that's never been seen before.

jondf
jondf  72474 forum posts
28 Mar 2013 - 2:13 PM


Quote: I dont see anything on the horizon that is going to improve the counties economic outlook for may years.

'Newsworthy' media outpourings coming thick and fast now, but who's right and who's wrong?


http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/28/uk-britain-economy-idUKBRE92R06X2013032...

mikehit
mikehit  46187 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
28 Mar 2013 - 2:35 PM

The problem is that when you have a definition of 'recession' being based on two consecutive quarters, you get each side (press as well as politicians) bending the figures to push the prediction either side of a fixed line and cry either 'your incompetent' or 'look the policies are working'. Meanwhile the man in the street stands there thinking"I don't really care what you call it, life is still pretty crap".

One report I read recently was pointing out that despite all the gloom and doom, house prices were rising, mortgage approvals rising, manufacturing output rising, unemployment down to the lowest levels for some time, stock market looking healthy - and although these indicators are still unsteady, we Brits have the annoying habit of talking ourselves into a recession. I can't comment on the validity of the numbers but I agree with the conclusion.

brian1208
brian1208 e2 Member 1110181 forum postsbrian1208 vcard United Kingdom12 Constructive Critique Points
28 Mar 2013 - 2:56 PM

There is no news like bad news and the media love to talk down this country

Also, its in the interests of the speculators to try to suppress the appetite for buying UK stock when the market place is actually improving as this means they can buy cheap then take profit when the real figures become available, showing the situation isn't as bad as the pundits claimed

As for life being "Pretty Crap", its not as good as it appeared in the days when people believed the garbage about the "End of Boom and Bust" and some (the majority?) lived well beyond their means, bouyed by a belief that inflated house prices meant real wealth so they over borrowed against this value and maxed their credit cards etc

But

I would argue that we are slowly returning to reality where personal and national wealth is concerned, which is a shock to many.

A final thought, the argument that economies can "grow their way out of recession" and that the stock market can makes gains is still based on the same fairy tale economics.

The world economy is a zero sum game, in a closed system such as the Earth there are only so many resources available, where some regions grow others must suffer decline, when some "win" on the stock market others will "lose"

Me, I still try to live within my means and ignore all the BS from the "Experts" and I'm old enough to know what real poverty and hardship was like in the UK back in the late 40's and early 50's.

Having worked in enough really poor parts of the world I know that the whole of the UK lead a life of privilege compared to the majority of the world population

saltireblue
saltireblue Site Moderator 43666 forum postssaltireblue vcard Norway23 Constructive Critique Points
28 Mar 2013 - 3:16 PM


Quote:

When Norway had it North Sea oil bonanza, their government invested heavily in infrastructure and the result is that Norway is one of the world's most advanced countries with very high GDP.

The reality is that the nation Norway is extremely rich, but Norwegians are no better off as all the earnings from the North Sea are invested to be used that fateful day when the oil and gas reserves are no more.
We have corridor patients in hospitals, schools buildings falling into disrepair, pupils having to share out-dated and too few text books, an under-manned police force that cannot investigate "small" crimes because they do not have the overtime budget for it, health care for the elderly extremely under-funded, with care homes lacking enough staff to look after the elderly patients properly. Patients given nappies as there are not enough staff to take them to the bathroom when they need it.
No high speed inter-city rail links, motorway building funded for 10 or 15km per year instead of the whole project funded at the start,...I could go on. The riches of Norway are a myth. It is all tied up in investments and the politicians refuse to make the everyday situation of thousands of Norwegians better by using the money to repair schools, expand the health service, fund more doctors and nurses, etc, etc.
Advanced? No way Jose.

mikehit
mikehit  46187 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
28 Mar 2013 - 3:27 PM

A pretty sobering view there, saltireblue. And you can't even drown your sorrows coz alcohol is so damned expensive !


Quote: I would argue that we are slowly returning to reality where personal and national wealth is concerned, which is a shock to many.

I think that is part of it - it is quite natural to look at recent history as 'the norm' but I think it is the last 20 years have been the anomoly - a nice cushy one, maybe but an anomoly nonetheless. And despite the falling standard of living we probably still have a better lifestyle than 30 years ago (and that includes pensioners who see their savings being stripped away).
Cue Pythonesque murmurings of "when I were a lad..."


Quote: Having worked in enough really poor parts of the world I know that the whole of the UK lead a life of privilege compared to the majority of the world population

I agree with you wholeheartedly.

lobsterboy
lobsterboy Site Moderator 1014051 forum postslobsterboy vcard United Kingdom13 Constructive Critique Points
28 Mar 2013 - 3:43 PM


Quote: The world economy is a zero sum game, in a closed system such as the Earth there are only so many resources available, where some regions grow others must suffer decline, when some "win" on the stock market others will "lose"

I don't see how that can be true - when Britain had the industrial revolution the country became massively rich almost overnight. It didn't mean the rest of the world got poorer, it just meant we were better at exploiting the resources we had.

The "So many resources" argument will only hold up if you are using every available resource at 100% efficiency.

Last Modified By lobsterboy at 28 Mar 2013 - 3:43 PM
keith selmes
28 Mar 2013 - 4:04 PM


Quote: We have corridor patients in hospitals, schools buildings falling into disrepair, pupils having to share out-dated and too few text books, an under-manned police force that cannot investigate "small" crimes because they do not have the overtime budget for it, health care for the elderly extremely under-funded, with care homes lacking enough staff to look after the elderly patients properly

Sounds like the 60's, but without the cold war and Vietnam. Like the 70's too. Actually, any time since the forties.

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