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Swine Flu? What swines! ;-)

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tomcat
tomcat e2 Member 95932 forum poststomcat vcard United Kingdom15 Constructive Critique Points
15 Jan 2010 - 9:22 PM

There were probably more schools closed, or school days lost, due to " a swine flue epidemic" which never happened, than there has been due to the current inclement weather

Last Modified By tomcat at 15 Jan 2010 - 9:24 PM
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15 Jan 2010 - 9:22 PM

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RogBrown
RogBrown  73006 forum posts England10 Constructive Critique Points
15 Jan 2010 - 10:11 PM

What about the AIDS epidemic which was going to decimate the human race? That never happened either. Never believe anything an expert tells you!! Global warming? In a pig's ear!!
(Possibly the wrong thread, but there you go.)

Last Modified By RogBrown at 15 Jan 2010 - 10:12 PM
strawman
strawman  1022010 forum posts United Kingdom16 Constructive Critique Points
15 Jan 2010 - 10:13 PM


Quote: What about the AIDS epidemic which was going to decimate the human race?

there are parts of Africa its doing a fairly good job of blighting a lot of peoples lives.


Quote: HIV/AIDS is the deadliest epidemic of our time. Over 22 million people have already lost their lives, and more than 42 million are currently living with HIV/AIDS. Even if a vaccine for HIV were discovered today, over 40 million people would still die prematurely as a result of AIDS. In many countries, especially in Africa and the hardest-hit countries such as Botswana, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, the AIDS epidemic has spread rapidly, leaving illness, death, poverty and misery in its wake. In other countries the disease is still in its early stages. Notably, HIV/AIDS has now taken hold in the most populous countries of the world—the number of people infected with HIV has reached one million in China and six million in India; the destructive effects of the epidemic are already beginning to be felt in those countries.


Quote: In the most severe case, Botswana, where currently more than one in three adults is HIV positive, life expectancy is expected to drop from 65 years in 1990-1995 to just under 40 years in 2000-2005. As a result of the high death rate, Bot-swana’s population is expected to decline within the next few years.

Last Modified By strawman at 15 Jan 2010 - 10:17 PM
tomcat
tomcat e2 Member 95932 forum poststomcat vcard United Kingdom15 Constructive Critique Points
15 Jan 2010 - 10:24 PM

What John states is correct.

However, I must ask, WHY?????

Last Modified By tomcat at 15 Jan 2010 - 10:24 PM
dave thelens
15 Jan 2010 - 10:54 PM

Well I got it ......... came out in rashers

DTL

tomcat
tomcat e2 Member 95932 forum poststomcat vcard United Kingdom15 Constructive Critique Points
15 Jan 2010 - 11:04 PM

Oink!

Talking of which, the guy was aquitted today Smile

tomcat
tomcat e2 Member 95932 forum poststomcat vcard United Kingdom15 Constructive Critique Points
15 Jan 2010 - 11:04 PM

Hows that for a double entendre Wink

Last Modified By tomcat at 15 Jan 2010 - 11:05 PM
cambirder
cambirder  107202 forum posts England
15 Jan 2010 - 11:04 PM


Quote: What about the AIDS epidemic which was going to decimate the human race?

You seem to confuse newspaper headlines with expert opinion.

strawman
strawman  1022010 forum posts United Kingdom16 Constructive Critique Points
15 Jan 2010 - 11:13 PM


Quote: What John states is correct.

However, I must ask, WHY?????

Different social behaviours and habits. Possibly better adherance to safe sex in the west?

One theory is that in places like Uganda a person is more likely to have simultaneous long term sexual relationships over a longer time period than in the west, though the total number of partners in a life may be the same.

It looks that the HIV virus is relatively hard to pass on, (except through direct blood transmission) so it may well require repeated exposure to work through sexual means. So a society where it is common to have a couple of partners at once is one where it can spread quicker.

If partners are more sequential, there is a better chance of of realising you are infected prior to passing on. And if you have a main partner and a number of random partners it looks not to pass on so well.

I would imagine that the version of the sexual act you perform is also a factor.

So AIDs being harder to pass on has slowed its development in the west. We would look to have @ 1% infection rate, but some parts of Africa you are up to 40%. I guess in the west it has not hit hard, so it falls from our notice. When I lived in Edinburgh I think most of the AIDs cases were with drug users, who were a risk as they often turned to prostitution to fund their needs. I do not know if that is still the case.

Last Modified By strawman at 15 Jan 2010 - 11:15 PM
RogBrown
RogBrown  73006 forum posts England10 Constructive Critique Points
15 Jan 2010 - 11:34 PM


Quote: You seem to confuse newspaper headlines with expert opinion

As I recall, the newspaper headlines reported that the experts said that AIDS would decimate the human race!

strawman
strawman  1022010 forum posts United Kingdom16 Constructive Critique Points
16 Jan 2010 - 12:34 AM

I think the newspapers said that. Experts indicated the potential impact amongst a variety of scenario.

Given that some human populations have a 40% infection, the potential is clear.

Vince_S
Vince_S  4 England
16 Jan 2010 - 9:55 AM

Certainly it is the Goverments duty to prepare. However, over the last few years the predictions from experts seem to have been a long way out ( eg AIDS,SARS, BSE). My belief is that the "models" being used to make these predictions should be questioned and not the preparation. However, we do seem to be in a situation where anybody who holds a different view to these so called experts and governments are attacked on a personal level and open and frank discussions are not allowed(eg Climate change)

Vince

cambirder
cambirder  107202 forum posts England
16 Jan 2010 - 10:42 AM


Quote: open and frank discussions are not allowed

Since when


Quote: My belief is that the "models" being used to make these predictions should be questioned and not the preparation

Model are always being questioned especially by those doing the modelling. Predicting future events is not easy and the more complex something is (climate, virus mutation) the wider the range of predicted outcomes become. The press of cause tend to pick-up on the worst case scenarios and ignore the rest (doom and gloom sells papers) Then when it does not happen any fool with the knowledge of hindsight goes on to attack the experts without ever reading what they actually said.

Vince_S
Vince_S  4 England
16 Jan 2010 - 11:12 AM

"Model are always being questioned especially by those doing the modelling"

That in my view is exactly the problem.

Vince

keith selmes
16 Jan 2010 - 12:12 PM


Quote: The news that the rest of us read and see on TV every day.

I seldom read newspapers or watch television news. Its not reliable and its not necessary now that we have the internet. You can usually get as good information as the journalists, if not better, and you can read what it said before they messed it up. They have to produce attention grabbing stories every day, in a tight timeframe, on subjects about which they often know very little. So they frequently get it wrong, whether by mistake or intention, and do a great job of misinformation.

There have been enough times where I've known what really happened, and read a newspaper story that had a grain of truth, and 80% fiction.

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