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Typhoon Haiyan

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jondf
jondf  72474 forum posts
10 Nov 2013 - 11:40 AM


Quote: Your comment is like sayind 'there is a massive scream inside me and a broken bone that I am holding back until someone drops a ruddy great brick on my toe'. Typical back-to-front Gaian thinking.


Yes but you're trying to liken unconscious acts of nature with the conscious acts of man.

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10 Nov 2013 - 11:40 AM

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brian1208
brian1208 e2 Member 1110167 forum postsbrian1208 vcard United Kingdom12 Constructive Critique Points
10 Nov 2013 - 11:50 AM


Quote: Yes but you're trying to liken unconscious acts of nature with the conscious acts of man.

and you are ascribing the attributes of mind to natural phenomena incapable of thought


Quote: unconsciousness consists of the thoughts in the mind that occur automatically and are not available to introspection, and include thought processes, memory, affect, and motivation

Even Lovelock (who proposed the idea of Gaia) didn't hypothesise that:


Quote: Gaia theory or Gaia principle, proposes that organisms interact with their inorganic surroundings on Earth to form a self-regulating, complex system that contributes to maintaining the conditions for life on the planet

ie: the proposal is that there are a series of complex feedback systems which occur that are capable of regulating the system in which they exist. This does not require nor does it propose thought as part of the process

Last Modified By brian1208 at 10 Nov 2013 - 11:51 AM
col_c
col_c  1 United Kingdom
10 Nov 2013 - 12:50 PM

You cannot draw any conclusions about climate change from any one event such as Typhoon Haiyan. It is a big storm and one of a series this year but still lies within the expected limits for this sort of event. But you can say that such high energy storms would be the logical result of the climate change caused by humans and we should expect more of them in the future.

So if no one event can indicate climate change how can we know what is happening?

What meterologists do is to look at long series of events to look for a trend. Often these trends appear quite small when averaged out but they indicate the way things are going. The classic example of this is the 'Hockey Stick Graph' which shows global atmospheric temperature over a long period from many sources. This seems to show that human acitivity is changing the climate.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph

It is often said that climate is always changing so what does it matter?

That is true, but the difference between 'normal' climate change caused by natural factors seems to be much slower than the change we humans are cureently causing. So we are giving ourselves much less time to adapt and prepare for this more extreme climate.

brian1208
brian1208 e2 Member 1110167 forum postsbrian1208 vcard United Kingdom12 Constructive Critique Points
10 Nov 2013 - 1:02 PM


Quote: The classic example of this is the 'Hockey Stick Graph' which shows global atmospheric temperature over a long period from many sources. This seems to show that human acitivity is changing the climate.


not everyone agrees with the Hockey Stick analysis

and don't forget the plateau

the truth is that the model used can't predict what is happening and, by any normal scientific process it would by now have been accepted that it needs replacing BUT there are now vast sums of money tied up in the Climate Change business together with political careers and reputations so this cannot be allowed

jondf
jondf  72474 forum posts
10 Nov 2013 - 7:43 PM


Quote: ...and you are ascribing the attributes of mind to natural phenomena incapable of thought

Not really ......as an adjective, the word 'unconscious' can be used to describe any object or occurrence that lacks awareness, sensation or cognition.

mikehit
mikehit  46170 forum posts United Kingdom9 Constructive Critique Points
10 Nov 2013 - 9:37 PM

Fair enough, but can you describe something that is restraining an earthquake from happening. Because your posts make it sound as if and earthquake would happen if something was not stopping it (in other words, conditions are right for a small earthquake but something is holding it back until it becomes a big earthquake) - what is that 'something'?

Current theories do not require something to hold it back - just that conditions are not right for a release of energy in the form of an earthquake.

jondf
jondf  72474 forum posts
11 Nov 2013 - 1:11 PM


Quote: Current theories do not require something to hold it back - just that conditions are not right for a release of energy in the form of an earthquake.

That's a matter of opinion and interpretation. As someone said earlier about disasters waiting to happen. If a giant landslip occurs off the Canary Islands, it happens because something occurred to make it happen. In effect, the land that slipped had been prevented from doing so by other forces until those forces gave way.

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